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Pentonomics Turkey is Not Contained During my last appearance on CNBC, before I was banned several years ago, I warned Lifespan development portfolio the removal of massive and unprecedented monetary stimuli from global central banks would have to be done in a coordinated fashion.
Otherwise, there would be the very real risk of currency and debt crises around the world. Turkey is Not Contained August 20th, During my last appearance on CNBC, before I was banned several years ago, I warned that the removal of massive and unprecedented monetary stimuli from global central banks would have to be done in a coordinated fashion.
However, coordination among central banks is not what is happening.
The Fed is miles ahead in its reversal of monetary stimulus, as it has already raised rates seven times; with two more 25bps rate hikes in the pipeline scheduled for later this year.
This has led to a significant increase in the value of the US dollar. The strengthening dollar is placing incredible stress on the EM space, especially those countries that hold onerous dollar-denominated debt in conjunction with large current account and budget deficits.
Those envious growth rates attracted "hot" money from around the globe and helped send the Debt to GDP Ratio soaring.
Then in May ofthe baht was hit with massive speculative attacks--the market sensed the blood in the water. On July 2,currency and debt pressure forced Thailand to suddenly break the peg with the dollar and let the currency devalue. In turn, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia also allowed their currencies to weaken, and market turmoil affected stock markets in Hong Kong and South Korea.
Shortly after the Asia crisis subsided, the Russia crisis began; eventually leading to the infamous demise of the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management, and the ensuing Fed-orchestrated bail-out of Wall Street.
During that decade of Asian economic ebullience, the foreign currency debt to GDP ratio rose from percent, to percent at the peak of the crisis. Excess liquidity has resulted in fiscal mismanagement, current account deficits, and large dollar-denominated debt loads.
Bloomberg recently reported that non-performing loans in had their biggest quarterly increase on record in Q2, up to nearly 2 trillion yuan.
Communist China can no longer be the credit card to the developing world. For years Turkey has been stimulating its economy through easy credit and budget deficits.
Much like China, Turkey has piled on foreign denominated debt to fund government-sponsored projects that lack the productivity to curb the debt burden.
Of course, Wall Street carnival barkers and central bankers are quick to assure us that the situation in Turkey is isolated and contained — just as they assured us the sub-prime debt crisis applied to a small number of troubled loans back in Namely, intractable debt levels with an overreliance on dollar-based loans.
Therefore, these teetering economies can become completely destabilized if any one of the following three conditions occurs: A significant fall in the domestic currency against the dollar; a protracted interest rate spike; or a slowdown in GDP growth.
Any combination of the three can lead a nation to insolvency. PA of France, and their shares have been plummeting due to this notable debt exposure — let alone the emerging market space in its entirety. With economies around the globe such as Venezuela, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, Mexico, Indonesia, Russia, and South Africa in various stages of turmoil, it is prudent to say that we are likely embarking upon an EM debt crisis comparable to Thailand in and Russia in ; in which both countries closed their capital accounts after attracting billions of dollars in foreign loans.
These defaults hastened one of the most severe liquidity crises in world history. The developed worlds central banks are moving to a hawkish monetary policy stance—although not at the same pace--at the same time many EM central banks have been forced to jack up interest rates to defend their currencies.
Perma-bulls would have you believe that the problems of Turkey are all about the persecution of pastor Andrew Brunson; who God willing will be released from his imprisonment soon. Nor, would it ameliorate the over-leveraged condition of sovereign nations.
Most importantly, it would not rectify a decade worth of interest rate suppression that has engendered the biggest bond bubble in history.
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